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Growing worries are present about the possibility of armed conflict involving East African neighbors, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive discourse has escalated in the last month.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has provoked a intense rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in last year that his country's access to the sea was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have often been tense. Following a prolonged struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a long maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, making it without sea access.

Five years later, a territorial conflict started in which numerous people died.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopian Government

Abiy and military leader the army commander have directly stated control of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and suggested the wish to seize it militarily.

In early September, the Prime Minister said the country's "mistake" of losing access to the sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "addressed soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Reaction to the Threats

Amid persistent warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been restricted to short statements on X from Communications Head Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea calling it "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a policy of retaking former lands.

The information ministry warned on 16 September that efforts to justify "obvious provocation" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Border

So far, there are no reports of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the two countries.

However, in the country, government media has displayed training completions of thousands of cadets at different defense facilities.

The director of staff section of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an discussion that the military was in a "secure situation" as "many thousands of young people" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Historical Origins of the Conflict

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, the territory was administered by Italian rulers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then managed by the British military before evolving into a federated part of Ethiopia.

Yet in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor ended this system and Eritrea became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long internal conflict ensued, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Sovereignty was then confirmed by voters in a referendum in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their common border, causing hostilities in 1998.

Even though this finished in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries stayed at in dispute.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrea's leader the president. The both leaders agreed to a statement that the hostilities was concluded – a move that won Abiy the international recognition.

The neighboring states were then cooperators in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 internal conflict in the northern region.

But diplomatic connections have later worsened again.